Iran, US on brink of war again: For India, a lot to watch out for

📌 Summary:

• The US and Iran have attacked each other viciously over the past week, blowing multiple holes into the already tattered Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) the two signed on June 17

• On Saturday two US military personnel were killed in Jordan; the US retaliated, raising the spectre of an all-out war

• The MoU had hinged on the capability Iran demonstrated to control the Strait of Hormuz — through which 20 per cent of the world's energy supply flows; current tensions hinge on the US trying to demonstrate it can loosen Tehran's chokehold on this waterway

• Iran says US strikes have killed at least 50 people and wounded more than 500 in the post-MoU round of hostilities

• Why Iran will not back down despite the MoU promising major economic relief to a sanctions-crippled country — two reasons: (1) the conviction that the US cannot be trusted; (2) the imperative to retain control over the Strait of Hormuz, its single biggest source of leverage

• Escalation pattern: Iran has attacked US military bases in neighbouring countries; on July 18 the new Ayatollah, Mojtaba Khamenei, posted on X that "repeated breaches of the agreement" show the US President's signature is "utterly worthless and devoid of credibility"

• Iran is simultaneously pursuing formalisation of its control over Hormuz — per the US think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), an Iranian Environmental Protection Agency official announced on July 18 that the body had asked the government to charge ships transiting the strait fees for "environmental services", citing the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)

• Military adaptation: Iran has fired high-speed, manoeuvrable missiles at US regional bases, showing its ballistic missile programme now threatens US security interests; ISW notes Iranian leaders focused on missile accuracy after the 12-day war of June 2025, and after poor accuracy against Israeli targets in March-April 2026 likely deployed cluster munitions at greater scale to maximise damage

• For the US, the experience re-hammers the lesson of Afghanistan and Iraq — that too much firepower, poorly applied, only produces more enemies; its major goal now is to keep Hormuz free for movement as it was before the US and Israel attacked Iran on February 28

• India's specific stakes — human: many Indians live and work in West Asia, plus a large Indian population among ship crews; 14 Indians have died since the war began on February 28 and two more are missing, mostly seafarers and Gulf-based workers; New Delhi has protested with both Iran and the US over these deaths

• India's specific stakes — economic: rising energy prices are creating headwinds and have had a debilitating impact on Indian markets; the inflationary impact of West Asian developments is already visible

• India's response / position: New Delhi is urging both warring parties to return to dialogue and diplomacy, and not push the global economy into a slowdown in which the Global South suffers

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS2 (International Relations) — India's West Asia policy, energy-driven strategic interests, protection of the diaspora and seafarers, and India's balancing between the US and Iran. Links to GS3 on energy security and imported inflation, and to Geography on chokepoints and UNCLOS.

📝 Prelims Facts:

• The Strait of Hormuz carries about 20 per cent of the world's energy supply

• The US-Iran MoU was signed on June 17, 2026; the war began on February 28, 2026

• Mojtaba Khamenei is referred to as the new Ayatollah of Iran

• Iran cited UNCLOS to justify proposed "environmental services" transit fees on ships using the strait

• 14 Indians have died and two are missing since the war began, mostly seafarers and Gulf-based workers

• ISW = Institute for the Study of War, a US-based think tank

🔑 Key Term: Chokepoint — a narrow, strategically critical maritime passage through which a disproportionate share of global trade or energy must pass, and whose closure or disruption by a littoral state can impose outsized costs on the world economy. The Strait of Hormuz, Strait of Malacca, Bab-el-Mandeb and the Suez and Panama Canals are the principal global chokepoints.