Why India's imports of 3 agri-commodities may touch a new high this year

📌 Summary:

• In 2025-26, India imported a record 16.4 million tonnes (mt) of vegetable oils ($19.5 bn) and 1.1 mt of raw cotton ($1.9 bn), plus nearly 6 mt of pulses ($3.6 bn); the current fiscal could break even these records
• Main driver: El Niño — an abnormal warming of the central/eastern Pacific off Peru-Ecuador, linked to dry weather across India, Southeast Asia and Australia — is already reducing rainfall
• Key data: June rainfall 38% below normal; July shortfall 7.3%; cumulative June-Sept deficit 24% (as of July 16); overall kharif sown area down 16% vs last year, with pulses down 23.3% and oilseeds down 21%
• Crop-wise acreage drops: arhar/pigeon pea -30.3%, urad/black gram -29.7%; soyabean -16%, groundnut -34%, sesamum -46%; cotton -15.3%
• Solutions/mitigants: monsoon revival in July could close gaps as pulses (arhar) can be sown till July-end and cotton till month-end; but scattered, uneven rainfall is a problem
• Pest risk: prolonged dry weather aids pink bollworm (PBW) — a monophagous cotton pest — since frequent rains normally disrupt its mating cycle and drown pupae; dry spells raise pest populations and cut yields
• Outlook: the bigger worry is a strengthening El Niño ahead — NOAA forecasts an 81% probability of its persistence
• India's vulnerability: heavy structural import dependence in edible oils, pulses and cotton makes it exposed to any domestic shortfall and global price swings

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS3 Economy/Agriculture — monsoon dependence, cropping patterns, import dependence, food/edible-oil security; GS1 Geography — El Niño and Indian monsoon

📝 Prelims Facts:

• El Niño = abnormal warming of central & eastern Pacific waters off Peru-Ecuador; associated with dry weather over India
• India imported a record 16.4 mt of vegetable oils in 2025-26; NOAA has put an 81% probability on El Niño persisting
• Pink bollworm (PBW) is a monophagous pest that feeds exclusively on cotton

🔑 Key Term: El Niño — the warm phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), typically weakening the Indian southwest monsoon.