How El Niño could damage India’s economy | Explained

📌 Summary:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast “below-normal” rainfall for July 2026 (less than 94% of the July normal), after the first month of the monsoon ended with a 40% deficit
• June 2026 rainfall was 99.5 mm against a long-period average of 165.3 mm — a 39.8% shortfall across all four meteorological subdivisions
• IMD warns below-normal rainfall poses significant challenges for agriculture, water resources, hydropower generation, ecosystem sustainability and drinking water availability
• Union Agriculture Minister warned of a potential ‘super’ El Niño directly affecting Kharif crops, especially in rainfed regions where farming depends heavily on monsoon rains
• Transmission to the economy: a weak/deficient monsoon hits Kharif output → food inflation, rural incomes and demand fall, and hydro/water-dependent sectors are strained

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS1 Geography / GS3 Economy — El Niño-Southern Oscillation and the Indian monsoon; monsoon dependence of agriculture; food inflation and rural demand linkages.

📝 Prelims Facts:

• El Niño = abnormal warming of the central/eastern Pacific Ocean surface, generally associated with weaker Indian monsoon rainfall
• June 2026 rainfall: 99.5 mm vs LPA of 165.3 mm (−39.8%); July forecast “below normal” (<94% of normal)
• Kharif crops (sown with the southwest monsoon) are most exposed in rainfed regions

🔑 Key Term: El Niño — the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), marked by warming of tropical Pacific waters, often correlated with monsoon suppression over India.