'Strong' El Nino during June-Sept, below-normal rain over Indian subcontinent: WMO

📌 Summary:

• The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned that strengthening El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean will raise the risk of heatwaves, droughts and heavy-rainfall extremes worldwide
• El Nino — a naturally occurring ocean-atmospheric phenomenon with warmer-than-normal equatorial Pacific waters — emerged in June and is forecast to intensify into a 'strong' event during July–September, persisting to year-end when it peaks
• Over India, El Nino is generally associated with heatwaves and below-average monsoon rainfall
• India already saw its 5th driest June in 126 years; monsoon onset was delayed (Delhi only on Thursday); country-wide rainfall deficit was 30% as of July 3
• A parallelly warming Indian Ocean could further dampen Indian rainfall; WMO predicts below-normal rain across parts of the tropical Indian Ocean, the Indian subcontinent and most of Australia
• IMD forecasts below-normal July rainfall (~94% of the 280mm Long Period Average) — critical as July is the peak month for kharif sowing

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS1 (climatology, monsoon dynamics) and GS3 (agriculture, food security, disaster/drought risk) — ocean-atmosphere teleconnections shaping India's monsoon

📝 Prelims Facts:

• El Nino = warm phase of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO); linked to weak Indian monsoon
• July Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall = 280mm; IMD forecast ~94% of LPA
• India recorded its 5th driest June in 126 years; 30% rainfall deficit by July 3
• A warm Indian Ocean (positive-like warming) can suppress monsoon rainfall

🔑 Key Term: El Nino — the warm phase of ENSO, where abnormal warming of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific disrupts global weather and typically weakens the Indian southwest monsoon.