After driest June since 1901, IMD forecasts below-normal July rainfall as El Nino strengthens

📌 Summary:

• June recorded a 40% rainfall deficit (99.5 mm vs normal 165.3 mm) — the fifth driest June since records began in 1901
• IMD forecasts July rainfall to be below normal (less than 94% of the Long Period Average), though better than June; July alone accounts for ~32% of seasonal rainfall
• This is the first time IMD has issued a standalone monthly forecast for July (earlier only June was forecast)
• The June shortfall may force IMD to re-examine its seasonal outlook; in May it had projected the four-month season at 90% of LPA under a developing El Nino
• June deficit was driven mainly by absence of low-pressure systems, not El Nino; weak El Nino now prevailing in the Pacific is likely to strengthen in July, raising temperatures
• First week of July likely to bring fairly widespread rains; above-normal maximum temperatures expected over most of the country

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS1 Geography / GS3 Agriculture — monsoon dynamics, El Nino-ISMR link, implications for kharif sowing and rural demand.

📝 Prelims Facts:

• Long Period Average (LPA) is the benchmark for monsoon; "normal" = 96-104% of LPA
• El Nino = anomalous warming of the central/eastern equatorial Pacific, generally suppressing the Indian monsoon
• Driest June on record was 2009 (87.6 mm)

🔑 Key Term: El Nino — a phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) marked by Pacific warming, often correlated with weak Indian monsoons.