El Niño and Iran sharpen India's food prices challenge

📌 Summary:

• Context: Southwest monsoon was 39.8% below normal in June — all-India rainfall of 99.5 mm was the fifth lowest for the month after 2014, 2009, 1926 and 1905; by July 5 the seasonal deficit narrowed to 24.1% and the monsoon covered ~95% of the country's area

• Kharif sowing was 22.7% lower year-on-year till June 25 — the lag was steepest in oilseeds (53.3%), pulses (30.5%) and cotton (34.6%); the monsoon's revival from June 30 can potentially close these gaps

• Core argument: El Niño has overtaken Iran as the No. 1 risk factor for the Indian economy; without proactive supply-side management there is every risk of repeating a protracted episode of elevated food prices

• Causal chain: (1) El Niño suppresses monsoon rainfall → kharif output falls; (2) it also raises temperatures → a relatively short, warm winter damages rabi crops (wheat, mustard, chana, masoor, potato); (3) lower domestic output of oilseeds/pulses → further imports become inevitable → food inflation via import dependence

• Historical precedent: the last "strong" El Niño event (2023-24) led to annual retail food inflation averaging over 8.5% between July 2023 and December 2024

• Key data: IMD forecasts July rainfall "most likely below normal"; El Niño is currently in a "moderate" phase, predicted to intensify to "strong" in the second half of the season and "very strong" over October–January; India imported a record 16.9 million tonnes of vegetable oils in 2025-26 and 7.3 mt of pulses the previous fiscal

• India's vulnerability: heavy import dependence in edible oils and pulses exposes domestic food prices to global supply shocks

• Solutions proposed: keep the import window open; ensure MSP for pulses, oilseeds, millets and cotton through payment of the difference over open-market rates — incentivising farmers to shift away from water-intensive rice, wheat and sugarcane; 2026-27 will also test the ground-level implementation of the PMFBY crop insurance and VB-G RAM G rural employment schemes

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS3 — food security, food inflation and MSP/procurement policy; GS1 Geography — El Niño and monsoon behaviour; links climate phenomena to macroeconomic stability

📝 Prelims Facts:

• June 2026 all-India rainfall: 99.5 mm (39.8% below normal) — fifth lowest June on record
• India imported a record 16.9 million tonnes of vegetable oils in 2025-26 and 7.3 mt of pulses in 2024-25
• 2023-24 strong El Niño: retail food inflation averaged over 8.5% from July 2023 to December 2024

🔑 Key Term: El Niño — anomalous warming of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific that typically weakens the Indian southwest monsoon and raises temperatures, hurting both kharif and rabi crops