El Niño and Iran sharpen India's food prices challenge

📌 Summary:

• Context: June southwest monsoon was 39.8% below normal — all-India average of 99.5 mm was the fifth lowest June rainfall on record (after 2014, 2009, 1926, 1905); July revival has narrowed the seasonal (June–Sept) deficit to 24.1% as on July 5, with monsoon covering ~95% of the country

• Kharif sowing was 22.7% below last year till June 25 — the lag was worse for oilseeds (53.3%), pulses (30.5%) and cotton (34.6%); the monsoon's revival from June 30 can close these gaps

• Core concern: El Niño is currently in a "moderate" phase, predicted to intensify into a "strong" event in the second half of the monsoon and turn "very strong" over October–January; IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for July too

• Causal chain: El Niño suppresses monsoon rainfall and raises temperatures → (a) hits kharif crop output; (b) causes a short, warm winter → damages rabi crops (wheat, mustard, chana, masoor, potato) → food supply squeezed on both fronts → elevated retail food inflation

• Historical precedent: the last "strong" El Niño of 2023-24 kept annual retail food inflation averaging above 8.5% between July 2023 and December 2024

• India's specific vulnerability: record 16.9 million tonnes of vegetable-oil imports in 2025-26 and 7.3 mt of pulses imports the previous fiscal; the editorial argues El Niño has overtaken Iran as the No. 1 risk factor for the Indian economy

• Solutions proposed: keep the import window open; ensure MSP for pulses, oilseeds, millets and cotton via payment of the difference over open-market rates — incentivising farmers away from water-intensive rice, wheat and sugarcane; strong ground implementation of PMFBY (crop insurance) and VB-G RAM G (rural employment) in 2026-27

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS3 — food security, MSP/price-deficiency payments, food inflation management; GS1 Geography — El Niño and monsoon behaviour

📝 Prelims Facts:

• June 2026 all-India rainfall: 99.5 mm, 39.8% below normal — fifth lowest June on record
• India imported a record 16.9 million tonnes of vegetable oils in 2025-26
• El Niño forecast: moderate now → strong in second half of monsoon → very strong over Oct–Jan

🔑 Key Term: El Niño — anomalous warming of the central-eastern equatorial Pacific that typically suppresses Indian monsoon rainfall and raises temperatures, historically associated with food-inflation episodes in India.