As El Nino looms, guard against food inflation

📌 Summary:

• Context: The southwest monsoon is 42.8% below normal (till June 22) even before El Niño's main impact; it made no progress June 15-21 before reviving on Monday
• Core argument: India must pre-empt food inflation through deft supply-side management rather than reactive curbs
• Causal chain — three linked mechanisms: (1) Weak monsoon winds and the absence of an eastward Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed rainfall, so kharif sowing acreage is trailing; (2) El Niño, forecast to turn "strong" (Aug-Sep) and "very strong" (Oct-Jan), raises temperatures and will hit the rabi (winter-spring) crops, a harbinger of future food inflation; (3) Global commodity prices (crude, gas, coal, fertilisers, metals) surged after the US-Israel war on Iran, yet food prices held — only because of record 2024-25 and 2025-26 harvests, a cushion that may not last
• Key data: rainfall 42.8% deficit; the last strong-to-very-strong El Niños (2015-16, 2023-24) produced drought years; bumper global output of wheat, rice, maize, sugar, soyabean, rapeseed and palm oil
• India's vulnerability: kharif sowing already trailing for want of rain; rabi crops exposed if El Niño peaks Oct-Jan
• Solutions proposed: keep the import window open (preferable to knee-jerk export bans/restrictions); protect farmers against failed/prevented sowing via expedited crop surveys and insurance payouts; make VB-G RAM G a model rural employment programme in its launch year from July 1
• International angle: fuel/fertiliser prices surged post-Iran war while food prices stayed stable on record stocks — a divergence that may not endure

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS3 — food security, inflation management, the monsoon-agriculture linkage, and buffer-stock policy.

📝 Prelims Facts:

• Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): an eastward-moving band of clouds and moisture that, in a favourable phase, enhances the monsoon
• Rabi crops are sown in winter (Oct-Dec) and harvested in spring
• VB-G RAM G: rural employment programme being launched from July 1

🔑 Key Term: Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) — a moving band of rainfall and cloud near the equator that, in its active phase, boosts monsoon rainfall over India.