Why has monsoon progress stalled, and when can rains be expected next?

📌 Summary:

• A fortnight after the official onset of the southwest monsoon season, its performance has been sub-nominal — all-India rainfall was 38% below average between June 1 and 17
• The June-September southwest monsoon brings more than 70% of India's annual rainfall, making its progress critical for agriculture, water storage and the rural economy
• Climatologically, the monsoon arrives over the Andaman Sea in the third week of May and advances into the mainland through Kerala, generally by June 1
• The stalled advance has implications for kharif sowing and reservoir levels; the RBI's own June MPC minutes flagged a below-normal monsoon and likely El Nino as upside risks to food inflation
• Recovery in monsoon progress is awaited as conditions for further advance develop

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS1 Geography — Indian monsoon mechanism and variability; GS3 linkages to agriculture, food inflation and water management.

📝 Prelims Facts:

• All-India rainfall 38% below average (June 1-17)
• Southwest monsoon supplies over 70% of India's annual rainfall
• Monsoon onset over Kerala typically by June 1; reaches Andaman Sea in third week of May
• IMD = India Meteorological Department, the nodal monsoon-forecasting body

🔑 Key Term: Southwest Monsoon — the June-September rain-bearing seasonal wind system that delivers the bulk of India's annual precipitation.