El Nino emerges in Pacific Ocean, to intensify during southwest monsoon: IMD

📌 Summary:

• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) declared on Friday that El Nino has developed in the Pacific Ocean and will strengthen further during the southwest monsoon season (per its ENSO bulletin)
• The declaration followed the US NOAA, which noted El Nino would peak during November-January
• NOAA predicts the current El Nino could reach the 'very strong' category during November 2026-January 2027
• A 'very strong' El Nino is categorised when sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region exceeds 2 degrees Celsius
• El Nino conditions are typically associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India — an upside risk to food inflation and agriculture

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS1 (Geography) — ocean-atmosphere interactions, ENSO and its impact on the Indian monsoon; links to GS3 agriculture and food security.

📝 Prelims Facts:

• ENSO = El Nino Southern Oscillation; Nino 3.4 is the key region for tracking ENSO phase
• 'Very strong' El Nino: SST anomaly above 2 degrees C in Nino 3.4
• NOAA (US) and IMD (India) both track and declare ENSO conditions

🔑 Key Term: El Nino — the warm phase of ENSO, marked by abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific, often weakening the Indian southwest monsoon.