Hindu Kush Himalaya region to face drier monsoon, but threats of climate-induced hazards remain: New analysis

📌 Summary:

• The Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region — source of ≥10 large Asian river basins including the Ganga, Indus and Brahmaputra — is likely to see below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures this monsoon
• "HKH Monsoon Outlook 2026" by ICIMOD and the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (Chinese Academy of Sciences): lower rain (El Niño) + rising heat will raise risks of drought, floods, glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) and landslides
• HKH: a 3,500-km mountain arc across 8 countries (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Nepal, India, China, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Bhutan); thousands of glaciers; supports ~2 billion people's food/livelihood security
• Below-average snow persistence = reduced seasonal water buffer → greater dependence on rainfall, groundwater and springs
• El Niño (warm central/eastern tropical Pacific SSTs) suppresses the South Asian monsoon, which gives 70–80% of the region's annual rainfall
• A possible positive Indian Ocean Dipole later in the season may partly offset El Niño's drying; short, intense rain can still trigger hazards

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS3 Environment / GS1 Geography — climate change, glaciers, monsoon-El Niño dynamics, mountain disaster vulnerability, transboundary water security

📝 Prelims Facts:

• ICIMOD headquarters: Kathmandu, Nepal
• Rivers from HKH: Ganga, Indus, Brahmaputra, Yangtze, Irrawaddy, Mekong, Amu Darya
• El Niño suppresses the South Asian monsoon; 70–80% of the region's rain is from the monsoon
• GLOF = Glacial Lake Outburst Flood

🔑 Key Term: Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) — the SST difference between western and eastern Indian Ocean; a positive IOD can strengthen the monsoon