Turn potential double-whammy of rain and fertiliser shortfall into an opportunity

📌 Summary:

• Context: On two good monsoons (2024: 104% of LPA; 2025: 110%), farm sector grew 4.2% (2024-25) and 3.2% (2025-26); but El Niño is returning — IMD forecasts a below-normal monsoon (90% of LPA)
• Core argument: Convert the potential double-whammy (deficient rain + a fertiliser supply shock) into an opportunity through crop diversification
• Causal chain: (1) El Niño suppresses monsoon and brings warmer/shorter winters → the harder hit falls on rabi (Nov–Jan, strong El Niño) rather than kharif; (2) the West Asia conflict/Strait of Hormuz blockade fertiliser shock will mainly bite in rabi (kharif stocks are comfortable); (3) food inflation has stayed contained so far thanks to record 2025-26 crop output in India and globally
• Key data: India imported an all-time-high 16.9 mt of vegetable oils in 2025-26 and 7.3 mt of pulses the prior fiscal
• India's vulnerability: rice/wheat/sugarcane guzzle water and urea (nitrogen); heavy import dependence in edible oils and pulses
• Solution: Make 2026 the year of millets, pulses and oilseeds (less water/fertiliser); give farmers MSP assurance (direct procurement or price-difference payment) — but make it conditional on cost/market-driven pricing of water and fertilisers to promote efficient use

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS3 Economy/Agriculture — cropping pattern, fertiliser subsidy, MSP, edible-oil import dependence, climate-agriculture linkage

📝 Prelims Facts:

• LPA = Long Period Average rainfall
• El Niño suppresses monsoon rainfall
• India's 2025-26 vegetable oil imports: record 16.9 million tonnes

🔑 Key Term: El Niño — unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in central/eastern Pacific that suppress the Indian monsoon