100 days of Iran-US war: Who's winning, who's losing, and why India is worried

📌 Summary:

• The US-Israel war on Iran reached its 100th day (June 7, 2026) with no clear winner; it began with strikes that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and has since drawn in Lebanon, the Gulf states and global energy markets
• India's exposure (it has stayed diplomatically neutral but been directly hit): an Indian national was killed in an Iranian drone strike on Kuwait International Airport on June 3; the large Gulf diaspora faces security risks; and crude transiting the Strait of Hormuz — through which 65-70% of India's oil supply passes — has stayed elevated
• Diplomatic deadlock: Iran has stopped communicating with US mediators about extending the April 7 Pakistan-brokered ceasefire; the US House voted 215-208 on June 3 to restrict President Trump's authority to continue the war
• Human and financial cost: at least 3,500 killed in Lebanon and over 1 million displaced; 29 Israeli soldiers and 3 civilians killed; US cost estimated at $11.3 billion in the first six days, with some Democrats projecting a total of $630 billion-$1 trillion
• Strait of Hormuz is the key flashpoint: Iran claims it shares control of the strait with Oman; naval activity and a partial blockade have raised uncertainty; oil has at times crossed $100 a barrel, dipping when ceasefire hopes emerge
• Lebanon front: Israel-Hezbollah fighting continues despite a Washington-brokered ceasefire, with Hezbollah rejecting conditional truces and demanding a full Israeli withdrawal

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS2 — West Asia geopolitics, India's energy security and diaspora interests; GS3 — oil-price shocks and India's economic vulnerability via the Strait of Hormuz.

📝 Prelims Facts:

• The Strait of Hormuz carries 65-70% of India's oil supply; Iran says it shares control of it with Oman
• The April 7 ceasefire was brokered by Pakistan; the US House voted 215-208 to curb the President's war powers
• Oil prices crossed $100/barrel at times during the conflict

🔑 Key Term: Strait of Hormuz — the narrow chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which a large share of the world's (and India's) oil and LNG transits.