Turn potential double-whammy of rain and fertiliser shortfall into an opportunity

📌 Summary:

• India's farm sector grew 4.2% in 2024-25 and 3.2% in 2025-26 on the back of two good monsoons (rainfall 104% of LPA in 2024, 110% in 2025)
• A weak-to-moderate El Niño is developing; IMD has forecast a below-normal monsoon at 90% of LPA for the June-September season
• Causal chain — why the hit may land in rabi, not kharif: (1) kharif plantings have only just begun and El Niño intensity is mild during the monsoon months; (2) El Niño is projected to peak strong-to-very-strong in Nov-Jan, suppressing rabi rains and bringing warmer, shorter winters; (3) fertiliser stocks are comfortable for kharif, but the West Asia conflict supply shock and Strait of Hormuz blockade may be felt in rabi; (4) food inflation has stayed contained so far thanks to record 2025-26 crop output in India and globally
• Import dependence: a record 16.9 million tonnes (mt) of vegetable oils were imported in 2025-26 and 7.3 mt of pulses the previous fiscal
• Solution proposed: make 2026 India's "year of millets, pulses and oilseeds" — crops that need far less water and urea (nitrogen) than rice, wheat or sugarcane
• Mechanism: farmers respond to price signals, so assure MSP via procurement or payment of the difference over market rates — but make that MSP assurance conditional on cost/market-driven pricing of water and fertilisers to promote efficient use of scarce resources

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS3 — agriculture, cropping pattern, food and fertiliser security, and the monsoon-economy linkage; converting an El Niño risk into a crop-diversification opportunity.

📝 Prelims Facts:

• LPA rainfall: 104% (2024), 110% (2025); IMD 2026 forecast 90% of LPA
• Vegetable oil imports 2025-26: 16.9 mt (all-time high); pulses imports 7.3 mt
• Urea supplies nitrogen (N); rice, wheat and sugarcane are water- and fertiliser-intensive

🔑 Key Term: El Niño — abnormal warming of the central and eastern Pacific that typically suppresses the Indian southwest monsoon and brings warmer, shorter winters.