UN's El Nino warning amid heatwave: how the climate pattern has affected India before

📌 Summary:

• The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warned a moderate-to-strong El Nino could develop in coming months, raising risks of higher temperatures, erratic rainfall and stress on food and water systems

• WMO attributes it to unusually warm sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific; it forecasts above-average global temperatures June-August, lasting through November. 2027 is "very likely" to be the world's warmest year on record (Berkeley Earth's Zeke Hausfather)

• El Nino ("Christ child", named by Ecuador/Peru fisherfolk) is a periodic warming of Pacific sea-surface temperatures lasting 9-12 months, often linked to heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall worldwide

• India impact: historically linked to weaker monsoons and hotter summers, though effects vary year to year; the 1998 El Nino (one of the strongest) caused 2,600+ heat-related deaths and disease outbreaks (e.g., malaria)

• IITM-Pune research (Kripalani & Kulkarni) found several major Indian drought years coincided with strong El Ninos — but NOT every strong El Nino causes severe drought, as multiple climate factors govern the monsoon

• IMD data: global surface temperature in 2011-2020 was ~1.09 C above 1850-1900 (citing IPCC 2021); India's annual mean temperature rose ~0.62 C per 100 years over 1901-2020

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS1 Geography — ocean-atmosphere interactions (ENSO), monsoon dynamics; GS3 — climate change, food/water security, disaster preparedness

📝 Prelims Facts:

• El Nino = periodic warming of central & eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures; lasts 9-12 months; part of ENSO
• WMO is the UN's specialised weather/climate agency; IITM (Pune) and IMD track India's monsoon
• 1998 El Nino caused 2,600+ deaths in India; 2027 projected as likely warmest year on record

🔑 Key Term: El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) — a recurring climate pattern of warming (El Nino) and cooling (La Nina) of the tropical Pacific that influences weather worldwide, including the Indian monsoon.