Southwest monsoon unlikely to hit Kerala on May 26, state on yellow alert

📌 Summary:

• The southwest monsoon is now unlikely to hit Kerala on May 26 as earlier forecast; the IMD's latest weekly forecast places the Kerala onset between May 28 and June 3
• The normal onset date over Kerala is June 1; on May 15 the IMD had forecast an early onset on May 26 with a model error of plus or minus 4 days
• The monsoon arrived early - on May 16 - over the Nicobar Islands and parts of the Andaman Sea; by May 23 it had advanced into parts of the southwest and southeast Arabian Sea, the Comorin area and the Bay of Bengal
• The entire state of Kerala remains on a "yellow" (maintain watch) alert for heavy rainfall till May 28
• Monsoon onset over Kerala marks the start of the four-month June-September season, during which India receives over 70% of its annual rainfall
• This year's monsoon is crucial as it will progress during an evolving El Nino in the equatorial Pacific; the IMD's second-stage long-range forecast is due in the last week of May

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS1 (Geography - Climatology) - the Indian monsoon mechanism, the significance of monsoon onset for agriculture and the economy, and the role of El Nino and ENSO in monsoon variability.

📝 Prelims Facts:

• The normal date of monsoon onset over Kerala is June 1
• A "yellow" alert means "maintain watch"
• India receives over 70% of its annual rainfall during the June-September southwest monsoon
• El Nino is a warming phase of the equatorial Pacific Ocean generally associated with weaker Indian monsoon rainfall

🔑 Key Term: Monsoon onset - the date the southwest monsoon is officially declared to have set in over Kerala, marking the start of India's principal rainy season; it has no direct link to the monsoon's subsequent progress or total rainfall.