India sees relations with China in a bilateral context, Beijing has never seen it that way: Vijay Gokhale

📌 Summary:

• In an interview with The Hindu, former Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale discussed his new book on Chinese decision-making in conflict — a companion to his earlier work 'The Long Game' on how China negotiates with India

• Core argument: China's decisions to go to war are never driven by a single factor but by a confluence of domestic and global circumstances; its conflicts are rarely driven purely by operational or territorial objectives, but much more by political objectives vis-a-vis the other country

• Conflict is not only "hot war": Gokhale stresses that "grey zone warfare" — continuous tension using largely (but not entirely) military means, plus economic and psychological levers — is also a form of conflict; China has not fought a hot war since 1979

• Key insight for India: China has always viewed conflict in a wider global geopolitical context, never a narrow bilateral one — "India sees relations with China in a bilateral context; Beijing has never seen it that way" — which matters amid current Line of Actual Control (LAC) tensions

• China plans its diplomacy and propaganda proactively as part of its larger operational strategy, not reactively; Gokhale also found a strong correlation between China's opaque domestic politics and its decisions to use force

• Historical illustration: the 1958 Second Taiwan Strait Crisis — China's first major engagement after the Korean War — shows China seizing an opportunity when U.S. forces were distracted by crises in West Asia (Iraq, Lebanon), with flexible political (not purely territorial) objectives over Taiwan

• Broader context: as seen at the recent China-U.S. summit in Beijing, both powers recognise the international order is collapsing and are seeking to stabilise it on their own terms — a shift that will shape how China deals with India

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS2 (International Relations) — India-China relations, China's strategic behaviour, grey zone warfare, the LAC stand-off, and the implications of a shifting global order.

🔑 Key Term: Grey zone warfare — coercive activity that stays below the threshold of conventional ("hot") war, using a mix of military pressure, economic leverage and psychological operations to achieve strategic objectives without triggering open conflict.