Why Iran war, monsoon worries could make 2026 India's Year of Millets

📌 Summary:

• Northwest India farmers shifting acreage from cotton (narma) to bajra (pearl millet) due to a triple-shock
• Driver 1 — Pink bollworm (gulabi sundi): cotton yield in farms in Sirsa fell from 10–12 quintals/acre to 3.5 quintals; major threat across cotton belt of Bhiwani, Hisar, Fatehabad, Sirsa (Haryana); Mansa, Bathinda, Muktsar, Fazilka (Punjab); Hanumangarh, Sri Ganganagar (Rajasthan)
• Driver 2 — Labour shortage: picking cost Rs 12–25/kg makes cotton unattractive despite price rise to Rs 8,500/quintal
• Driver 3 — Chemical input crunch: cotton needs 5–10 sprays/season + multiple fertiliser bags; bajra needs only 2 SSP + 2 urea bags and 2 sprays
• Iran war + Strait of Hormuz disruption + monsoon worry → fertiliser/pesticide imports squeezed; West Asia routed up to 30% of global fertiliser trade
• Bajra advantages: 90–95 day crop, only 1–2 irrigations (vs 5–7 for cotton), 18–20 quintals/acre with Proagro 9001 hybrid
• Implication: shorter-duration, water-efficient millets become natural hedge against geopolitical/climate shocks; supports nutrition security
• Year of Millets (UN 2023) framework gains practical traction at field-level in 2026

🎯 UPSC Relevance: GS3 — Agriculture (cropping pattern, climate-resilient crops), Food Security, Energy (oil-fertiliser nexus); GS2 — Welfare schemes (nutri-cereals); strong link to IYM 2023, NFSA nutri-cereal inclusion, NMEO-Oilseeds context

📝 Prelims Facts:

• "Gulabi sundi" = Pink Bollworm (Pectinophora gossypiella); attacks Bt-cotton developing bolls
• Bajra = Pearl Millet (Pennisetum glaucum)
• Proagro 9001 — bajra hybrid by Crystal Crop Protection Ltd
• International Year of Millets — 2023 (UN); India was proposer; G20 Sherpa push
• Strait of Hormuz: ~30% of global fertiliser trade passes through it
• Cotton belt states named in article: Haryana, Punjab, Rajasthan

🔑 Key Term: Nutri-cereals — official Government of India term (2018) for millets including bajra, jowar, ragi and small millets; classified for inclusion in PDS/POSHAN schemes and the focus of the IYM 2023.